For as long as most of us can remember, sub—2:10:00 has been the measure of excellence in the marathon world. Each year we would count individuals and the number of countries who produced such performances and look at them with respect, admiration, and perhaps a touch of envy. But how can we use 2:10 now as a measure of excellence on the men’s side anymore?

We are not even through the eleventh month of 2024, and yet so much has already changed that 2023 now seems like a decade ago, rather than just last year. 

As it was, 2023 was already an era-ending year in the marathon.  We bade (a functional) farewell to grand master Eliud Kipchoge and welcomed his young countryman, Kelvin Kiptum, who not only broke Kipchoge’s world record in Chicago at 2:00:35, but ran the second best time of the year, 2:01:25, in London, with a legit sub-2:00:00 seemingly in sight. 

Then, Kiptum’s shocking death early this year in an auto accident took him away as fast as he came into our consciousness. Before we could fully process the loss, Ruth Chepngetich produced the first woman’s sub-2:10:00 marathon. And now, Kiptum’s passing and Kipchoge’s reign seem like ancient history. Makes you wonder whether the earth somehow picked up the pace on the 1040 mph it rotates on its axis in 2024.

What are we to compare in 2024 that would be sub-2:10:00’s equal from 2001? Should excellence over 42, 195m now be sub-2:06?

Usually, I wait till after the Honolulu Marathon (this year, 8 December) to note the state of the marathon year just past. But a cursory look at the World Athletics website this morning contained just enough intriguing data points to elicit this post today.

So far in 2024, as of November 20, the 41st best time of the year is 2:05:54. 41 is the number of sub-2:10s as happened in all of 2001. The 155th best time through the first 11 months of 2024, 2:07:52, is only one less than the total number of sub-2:10s in all of 2011. And the 186th best time of 2024, 2:08:05, equals the sub—2:10 total of 2014, not to mention it being Steve Jones’s world record from Chicago 1984.

Still ahead on 1 December is the Valencia Marathon, and the Fukuoka International Marathon. One week later will be the Honolulu Marathon. Valencia is one of the fastest marathons in the world, and their field is stacked once again. Fukuoka, once the unofficial world championship, was on its last legs in 2021 and looked like it would close after its 75th running. But a successor race took up the tradition and course of the original marathon the next year. Honolulu continues to draw top athletes, though its best times are slightly skewed by the tropical conditions. Still, we can expect to see many more sub—2:10 marathons in the last month of the calendar year. 

Looking at recent history, we can see the super shoe spike in marathon performances first truly revealed itself in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic closed many races in 2020 and 2021. Over the last two years, however, the running calendar has filled with races and the world’s top runners have found their groove again. 

In 2023, 432 sub-2:10s were run. This year, 401 to date (20 November). So, we might expect a similar number will be run as in 2023, maybe a little more, maybe a little less, including one by a woman. But the days of the big jumps may have reached their limit until the next new technology gets introduced. 

In 2001, there were 41 sub 2:10 marathons run in the world. Josephat Kiprono ran the best performance, 2:06:50, in Rotterdam in April. That was the lone sub 2:07 of the year. This year, 2:06:50 stands at equal 83rd best so far.

The annual number of sub-2:10s stayed under 100 until 2008, when it nudged above triple digits at 101. The high-water mark pre-super shoes was 2012 with 218 sub-2:10s. But the number retreated during the next several years to 198 in 2013; 186, in 2014; and 171 in 2015.

Then, in 2016, the year Nike secretly introduced the Vaporfly 4% super shoes at the U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials in L.A., and at the Rio Games, there were only 149 sub-2:10s.

The following year, 2017, we saw 180, but Nike was still the only company putting out a version of the swift kicks. The following year, 2018, the number bumped over 200 for the first time since 2012, at 209, as other shoe company designs came online. 

The first real super shoe bump happened in 2019. That year, 288 sub-2:10 marathons were run. But COVID-19 closed the world in 2020. Only 164 sub-2:10s got posted, and the hangover COVID-19 year of 2021 recorded 245. 2022 brought us back to regular order with 380. Then last year 432.

Here is another way of expressing it. Generational improvement. The marathon as a sport is only 128 years old. The official distance of the marathon, 42,195 meters, is only 116 years old. That is five generations in age, give or take. Let’s breakdown the event’s improvement, one generation to the next.

First Gen – 1896 – 2029 –  London 1908 was when the marathon reached 42.2K.
1908 – 2:55:18 – Johnny Hayes, London Oly
1929 – 2:30:57 – Harry Payne, AAA Championship, London
Difference – 14:21 – 14% improvement

Second Gen – 1925 – 1952
1925 – 2:29:01 – Albert Michelsen, Port Chester Marathon, USA
1952 – 2:20:42 – Jim Peters, Polytechnic Marathon, England
Difference – 8:19 – 5.6% improvement

Third Gen – 1952 – 1974
1952 – 2:20:42 – Jim Peters, Polytechnic Marathon
1974 – 2:09:12 – Ian Thompson, Comm. Games, Christchurch, NZL
Difference – 11:30 – 8.2% improvement

Fourth Gen – 1974 – 1999
1974 – 2:09:12 – Ian Thompson, Christchurch, NZL
1999 – 2:05:42 – Khalid Khannouchi, Chicago Marathon
Difference – 3:30 – 2.7% improvement

Fifth Gen – 1999 – 2023
1999 – 2:05:42 – K. Khannouchi, Chicago
2023 – 2:00:35 – Kelvin Kiptum, Chicago
Difference – 5:07 – 4.1% improvement

The last pre-super shoe world record was Dennis Kimetto’s 2:02:57 from Berlin in 2014. It took four years before Eliud Kipchoge eclipsed that mark in Berlin in 2018. His  2:01:39 chiseled 1:18 off Kimetto’s record. There’s your super shoe jump.

2:05:42 – Fourth Gen – Khannouchi, Chicago ‘99
2:02:57 – Pre-Super Shoe Fifth Gen -Kimetto, ‘14
2:45 Difference, 2.2% Difference

After Haile Gebrselassie ran 2:03:59 in Berlin 2008, the record dropped by a total of 62 seconds from 2011-2014 until Kipchoge’s super-shoe slash in 2018.

Patrick Makau sliced 21 seconds off Haile’s time in Berlin 2011. Then Wilson Kipsang took another 15 ticks away in the German capital in 2013, before Dennis Kimetto managed another 26 second reduction on the same course in 2014. Kipchoge’s 2:01:39 in Berlin 2018 chiseled 1:18 from that.

The super shoe impact doesn’t come into clear focus through a generational lens. The third generation, 1952 to 1974, stands out with its 8.2% reduction. But 4.1% improvement from 1999 to the present? Not that huge, unless we assume the gap would have been more in line with the 2.7% improvement we saw in Gen Four if the super shoes hadn’t come into play.

Leave a guess in the reply section how many sub-2:10s you think will be run by 31 December 2024. Maybe add what time should represent the new marker of excellence for men. Onward!

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