The aftershocks of Tigst Assefa’s 2:11:53 women’s marathon world record in the Berlin two weeks ago still reverberate. But this coming weekend in Chicago, her effort will be placed into a contemporaneous context: same timeframe, same, or better, level of athletes, near equal fast course, near equal expected conditions. 

With the field that’s been assembled for Chicago, headed by two-time defending champion Ruth Chepngetich of Kenya (2:14:18 in 2022), we will see how the new record stands up against athletes with much better career credentials than Ms. Assefa, wearing similar advanced technology that is at least partially responsible for the new mark.

Joining Chepngetich in Chicago will be 2x Olympic champion Sifan Hassan of the Netherlands (2:18:33, 1st, London 2023), holder of the world record at the Mile and one-hour run; and Ethiopia’s Genzebe Dibaba (2:18:05, 2nd Amsterdam 2022), current record holder indoor mile, 3000 & 5000. 

Last year, Ruth Chepngetich ran 2:14:18 in Chicago after flying through 5K in 15:11, 10K in 30:40 (15:29), and halfway in 65:44, 36 seconds faster than Assefa’s half in Berlin. Chepngetich’s last 10k slowed to 33:01 (16:24 & 16:37), so she is now aware of where the redlines are.

If one, or more, of the women in Chicago breaks 2:14 on Sunday, that may lessen the shock from Berlin. If they don’t, depending on how they attack the distance, the questions will only multiply. Hold on to your hats. The whole story from Berlin has yet to be written.

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World Athletics has a scoring table that attempts to equalize the value of performances across the spectrum of events. 

On that table, Ms. Assefa’s 2:11:53 women’s marathon world record scored 1318 points. That is higher than the 1309 points accorded Eliud Kipchoge‘s 2:01:09 men’s marathon world record from Berlin 2022. Assefa’s 2:15:37 victory in Berlin 2022 scored 1279 points. Everything else in her career, mostly at 800m through 2016, then road 10Ks in 2019, and half marathons in 2022, averaged 1156 points. Big leap there. 

But even that 1279 score from Berlin 2022 is way above her entire previous career average of 1160 points. That’s why red flags went up in Berlin, because the result didn’t skew with her other efforts. 

Now, it may well be that Ms. Assefa should have been running marathons a long time ago, because she is better suited to the longer distance. Or, it may be that the new Adidas AAPE1 shoes represent another breakthrough in running economy, and Assefa is among the top responders to the new tech. But the 10k and half marathon have always been good indicators of marathon success in the past. And 31 minute 10Ks and 1:07 half marathons do not indicate a 2:11:53 marathon. They don’t even suggest a 2:15 marathon. 

What was the old rule of thumb? Double your half marathon then add four minutes for your marathon predictor? But that rule preceded super shoes. And the wide variance in individual athlete response to the new shoes makes it impossible to decipher how much difference in performance can be attributed to the runner as opposed to the shoes.

That said, let’s look at the women who will be racing in Chicago, and evaluate their career WA scoring table averages through the host of distances. How do they stack up?

Ruth Chepngetich, 29, Kenya: In a career spanning 2016 to 2023, she’s run 12 marathons with two DNFs, and one tactical world championship win in Doha 2019 (2:32), leaving nine paced marathons to evaluate. In those nine, she’s averaged 1238 WA points, including her 2:14:18 win in Chicago last year (1293 points), the second best women’s marathon time in history at its running, third to date. 

Her five half-marathons since 2020 averaged 1211 points. Based on her CV, everything lines up, is of a piece. 10k PB, 30:29 (1221 points); Half PB, 64:02 (1256 points); Marathon PB, 2:14:18 (1293 points). No outliers here, just solid, consistent, convincing performances. In 12 marathon starts, she has registered 8 wins, including a world title, and two Abbott World Majors (both in Chicago).

Tadu Teshome, 22, Ethiopia: This one’s tough to read. She’s only run four marathons, with the best of 2:17:36 taking fourth place in Valencia, Spain in 2022 (1258 points). This spring she finished eighth at London in 2:21:31 (1218 points). Last year, she was also the winner in Riyadh in 2:26:38 (1166 points), and she debuted in Barcelona in 2021, winning in 2:23:53 (1194 points).

Her personal bests go from 2:06 at 800m to 31:28 at 10k, 66:13 for the half marathon, and 2:17:36 for the full marathon. At age 22, her best lies ahead. So almost anything she does on Sunday won’t be a surprise, up or down.

The most intriguing Chicago candidate might be Sifan Hassan, the 30-year-old Dutch world beater across the track, now exploring the marathon. 

A 2x Olympic champion, 2x world champion, 1x Diamond League final winner, 1X world championship silver medalist, 1x world indoor champion, current world record holder in 1-mile and one hour run, 4x world record holder in her career, my only question is the year she’s just had. It’s like a career in microcosm. 

So far in 2023, she’s competed in four 1500s, the last three at the World Championships in Budapest, where she finished third in the final. Three 5000s, the last two at the Worlds where she took second in the final. Two 10,000s, including a win in Hengelo in 29:37, then 11th at the World Championships in Budapest. And this spring she won her marathon debut in the London Marathon at 2:18:33 (1248 points). What’s she got left in the tank physically and emotionally for Chicago? She has been significantly better on the track than Tigst Assefa ever was, but is she a bit rundown?

Genzebe Dibaba, 32, of Ethiopia is another intriguing entrant, as well. But at age 32, with a career that began in 2006, andwith her best performances coming between 2014-2016, she may be a little long in the tooth for an assault on the marathon world record.

In this regard, she reminds us of her older sister, Tirunesh, a 3x Olympic champion, 5x World Champion, who also brought a spectacular track career to the marathon, but a little late, and never was able to show what she might’ve done in her prime at the 42 km distance. Even so, she still was a very credible 2:17:56 performer over a 5 marathon career. 

Joyciline Jepkosgei, 29, of Kenya is a known commodity. She all but began the assault on the record books with her 64:52 half marathon victory in Prague in 2017, breaking world records at 5K, 10K, 15K and 20K along the way. 

Since then she’s been a winner at the New York City Marathon in 2019 (2:22:38, 1206 points),  runner-up in Valencia in 2020 (2:18:40, 1247 points), winner in London 2021 at 2:17:43 her personal best (1257 points), second in London 2022 in 2:18:07 (1253 points), seventh at Boston in 2022 at 2:24:43, then 12th in Boston this spring in 2:24:40 (1166 points). 

If we follow her career trajectory, she is either beginning a gradual decline, or ready for a rebound with another top performance in Chicago. At age 29, the latter seems more likely than the former. 

Obviously, there are other names of note in the field, including American record holder Emily Sisson, runner-up in Chicago last year at 2:18:29. But while she seems prepared for a podium finish, it’s not likely she will land on the top step.

In any case, with a lineup of this strength, a forecast that calls for near ideal conditions, and the world record as a target, this Sunday’s Bank of America Chicago Marathon will go a long way toward validating the Berlin record, or casting more doubt on its legitimacy. 

Such is the nature of this odd game of distance running nearly 1/4 of the way through the 21st century.

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