Kahana, Maui – As so-called Super Shoes and advanced nutritional supplements continue to re-order the running record books, and now that the 2024 marathon season has been completed, we can look at the stats and come to a few observations. 

For many years, Sub – 2:10 for men and Sub – 2:20 for women represented the upper echelon of world marathon performances. But times change. So, in today’s world, what is the equivalent of a man’s sub – 2:10 or, a woman’s sub – 2:20?

Eliminating 2020 and 2021 as Covid – 19 affected years, here is a breakdown of the years just prior to the introduction and widespread use of the so-called super shoes in comparison to the last three years when the new shoes and a full calendar of events produced what we generally saw pre-Covid – 19.

In the last three years, there have been 183 (2024); 190 (2023); and 170 (2022) Sub – 2:07:46 male marathon performances. In the years 2015–2017, as super shoes were just being introduced to a handful of athletes by just one shoe brand, and before their widespread use by other brands, there were 172 (2015); 149 (2016); and 180 (2017) Sub – 2:10 performances. 

Essentially, the data suggests 2:07:45 in 2024 is the new 2:09:59 for men from 2017, a 1.73% improvement in the pre and post Super Shoe years.

On the women’s side, the last three years have produced 2 (2024); 3 (2023); and 3 (2022) Sub – 2:16 performances, including world records of 2:11:53 by Ethiopia’s Tigst Assefa in Berlin in 2023, and 2:09:56 by Kenya’s Ruth Chepngetich in Chicago in 2024. 

In the years 2015 – 2017, there were 3, 1, and 2 Sub –2:20s run by women. 

Again, this would make 2:15:59 today’s version of 2:19:59 in the pre-super shoe, sodium bicarb world. That is a 2.85% improvement on the women side.

Women improving 1.12% more than men  in this three-year time frame (2.85% vs 1.73%) suggests that the depth in women’s running remains behind that of men’s.

This is not surprising, as participation in sports and in the job market remains relatively new for women vis-à-vis men, especially in the developing parts of the world where traditional gender roles remain somewhat more fixed.

Perhaps the most shocking stat of 2024 would be how Ruth Chepngetich’s world record in Chicago (2:09:56) was a full 6:01 faster than the second best time of the year (2:15:55) run by Sutume Kebede of Ethiopia in winning the Tokyo Marathon. 

World Athletics stats only go back to 2001. But from that time till today, the largest gap between the world leader and the second best time of the year came in 2019 when Brigid Kosgei’s 2:14:04 (a world record) was 3:04 faster than the year’s runner-up time, 2:17:08, by Ruth Chepngetich in Dubai. In all the other years, the margin between first and second was less than a minute, except for 2016 when it was 1:04.

When Great Britain’s Paula Radcliffe ran her astonishing 2:15:25 world record in London 2003, she was still only 4:14 faster than WL #2, Yingzie Sun of China, who won the Beijing Marathon in 2:19:39.

We have to go all the way back to 1979 to find a greater gap between the fastest and second fastest time of the year than in 2024.

1978 was the year Norway’s legendary Grete Waitz entered the long distance game in New York City. She ran her debut marathon in 2:32:30, at the time, a world record performance. She finished 9:19 in front of Marty Cooksey from the United States in second place at 2:41:49. 

One year later, Grete’s 2:27:33 world record in NYC was 7:42 faster than Joan Benoit’s 2:35:15 course record in Boston. 

In all, there were 35 sub – 2: 20s run by women in 2024, only one by a non-East African born athlete, that being Honomi Maeda of Japan, whose 2:18:59 runner-up place in Osaka represented the 21st best time of the year.

In 2023, there were 31 sub – 2: 20s, again, only one by a non-east African born athlete, Hitomi Niiya of Japan, whose 2:19: 24 victory in Houston represented the 21st best time of 2023.

Finally, in 2022, there were 37 sub – 2:20s, two by non-east African born athletes, Emily Sisson of the United States took second place at the Chicago Marathon in 2:18:23, the 23rd best time of the year; and Keira D’Amato also from the USA, who won the Houston Marathon in 2:19:12 which was the 34th best performance of the calendar year 2022.

By comparison, there were only 8 sub – 2:20s in 2021; 9 in 2020; 13 in 2019; 11 2018; 4 in 2017; 1 in 2016: 2 in 2015; and zero in 2014.

The last time a non-east African born athlete was the world leader in the women’s marathon was in 2009 when Germany’s Irina Mikitenko won the London Marathon in 2:22:11. The runner-up in London 2009 was Great Britain’s Mara Yamauchi, whose 2:23:12 was the second fastest time of the year, and Yoko Shibui of Japan, winner in Osaka, ran the third fastest time of 2009 at 2:23:42.

Where we go from here is anybody’s guess. Onward, for sure.

END